There are strong indications that the terror group, Islamic States West African Province (ISWAP-ISIS) is planning to expel the Boko Haram group from its network at the expiration of a three-year ultimatum for it to establish a caliphate-like base in North East Nigeria. This was revealed in a survey carried out by the International Terror Monitoring Group (ITMG), a global monitoring group on the activities of terrorists Group across the world.
According to the ITMG, the ISIS groups have seen that the Boko Haram sect has lost steam in the last three years with the recapturing of territories once under their control.
“The ISIS has threatened to expel Boko Haram from its fold for its inability to sustain the tempo in the ongoing war with the Nigeria Army as reflected in it losing areas that hitherto were strongholds, such as Camp Zero in Sambisa forest as well as the lucrative Kukawa-Baga-Chad-Niger route,” the survey read in part.
The survey further highlighted the fact that should Boko Haram lose support from ISIS, that may signal the end of its existence. “The critical aspect of the deal for the Boko Haram insurgents is in their desire to continue to have supplies in arms and ammunition from the ISIS group. Their main supply would be cut off, and they stand the risk of going into oblivion should that happen,” it added.
It stated that the renewed attacks by Boko Haram is as a result of the ultimatum handed over to them to either capture territories or risk been excommunicated from the terror network.
“The renewed onslaught against the Nigerian Army is to put out a bold face to the ISIS network that they Boko Haram are in control of major communities in North East Nigeria, and which is far from the case. This much they have tried to achieve but with a heavy price in the number of causalities it suffered,” it said.
The ITMG survey further emphasized that the pressure on the Boko Haram sect by the ISIS network has been on in the past six months, especially as the election is approaching.
“Part of the reason for the pressure is to ensure that the northeast region is unsuitable for elections, and which would in a way disrupt the political process in Nigeria. But as it stands that aim is not possible because Boko Haram has not been able to lay claim to any territory in the past three years, unlike in times past where it was in control of over 16 local government areas in North East Nigeria,” it said.